September 2025

As summer winds down and we head into the fall season, there’s plenty happening in the financial and tax world that could impact both individuals and businesses.

From the recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” and shifting interest rate expectations, to the latest updates on inflation, unemployment, and upcoming tax deadlines, staying informed is key to making smart financial decisions.

In this month’s newsletter, we’ve pulled together the most important updates and insights to help you plan ahead with confidence.

We will continue to monitor all developments— especially upcoming CPI data and evolving interpretations of the OBBB law. Stay tuned for a special release where we dive into the details of this new bill.

Questions or want to strategize ahead of filing deadlines? Go to our website to schedule time via our calendar.

Here’s to anticipating change—not reacting to it!

---

📅 Important Upcoming Dates

• September 1: Labor Day

• September 11: Next CPI release, which will inform fed decisions & cost-of-living updates

• September 15: 2024 calendar year filing deadline for Partnerships & S-Corporations

• 3rd Quarter estimated tax payments due

"One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) Update

• Signed into law on July 4, 2025, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBB) enacts sweeping tax changes and extensions

• Key provisions for individuals and businesses:

  • Permanently extends the 2017 individual tax rates.

  • Raises the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 for taxpayers under $500K, with reversion to $10,000 after five years.

  • Adds new perks: deductions for tips, overtime, auto loan interest; enhanced child tax credit; and “Trump Accounts” for children—all expiring in 2028.

  • Extends 100% bonus depreciation through 2031 for qualified business property.

  • Increases the small business deduction from 20% to 23%.

• Fiscal consequences:

  • Estimated $3.4 trillion increase to the deficit over 10 years—or over $4 trillion, including added interest costs

• Distributional impact:

  • Analysis shows the wealthiest households benefit most, while lower-income Americans may see minimal or even negative effects once spending cuts (like Medicaid) are factored in.

Implication for clients: Now is the time to revisit tax planning strategies—especially for businesses investing in capital assets, families utilizing deductions, and advisors preparing for potential shifts post-2028.

In plain terms: Think of this as a major tax "bundle deal." Congress sent a giant package of tax rules down the line—some of which help lower your taxes, others that delay or tweak how things work. It’s important to know which parts benefit you now and which changes might expire in a few years.

Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

• The Federal Funds Rate remains between 4.25% – 4.50%, unchanged since December 2024

• Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech signaled a greater willingness to cut rates in September 2025 to address a cooling labor market and stable inflation.

• Market sentiment: About a 75–86% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in September.

• Risks remain: Tariff-driven inflation and labor market resilience could delay easing.

Takeaway for businesses: If you have floating-rate debt or critical financing needs, preparing for rate relief—or locking in favorable terms now—could be prudent.

To sum it up: The Fed keeps interest rates steady—kind of like holding your breath until inflation drops. Markets expect the Fed might finally breathe out (lower rates) in a few weeks, which could make loans cheaper. If you're planning a big purchase or refinancing, now might still be a good time to talk strategy.

Inflation & Consumer Prices

• Inflation is moderate: CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year in July; core (excluding food and energy) climbed 3.1%.

• Energy prices fell over the past 12 months: gasoline is down ~9.5%, fuel oil around 2.9%, though electricity and natural gas rose significantly.

• Other trends: Food-at-home +2.2%, full-service restaurant prices +4.4%, and shelter costs remain elevated (owners’ equivalent rent and rent both up).

Overall insight: Overall, inflation has cooled a bit, but prices are still stubbornly high for some things—like rent and restaurants. Meanwhile, energy costs are easing off. That means your energy bill might shrink, but groceries or housing costs may yet surprise you.

Labor Market & Unemployment

• Unemployment stands at 4.1% as of June, a slight dip from May.

• Economic sentiment: Households expect weaker unemployment ahead, with perceived job-loss risk increasing and hiring outlook slightly improving among non-degree holders.

For payroll and hiring: Stay alert to labor cost pressures—even as demand softens, turnover may be a consideration.

Strategic Takeaways

• Tax planning: Review how OBBB’s deductions and credits affect your cash flow through 2028. Consider accelerating capital investments before bonus depreciation deadlines—or await additional changes.

• Borrowing and lending: If you’re using AFR rates for intrafamily loans or valuations, now’s a favorable window with relatively higher fixed rates.

• Budgeting: Factor in sticky costs like housing and dining—even with energy costs easing, operational pressures persist.

• Stay tuned: Rate cuts and inflation data in September could significantly impact borrowing, expansion, and planning decisions.